Analysts at IDC looks into crystal ball, predicts smartphone statistics for 2015

Chart showing the smartphone statistics for 2015Analyst firm IDC regularly release smartphone statistics, covering different vitals and aspects of the smartphone sector.

This time they took a look into the future, trying to predict the result of the smartphone eco system war.

Smartphone statistics predictions for 2011

In 2010 the smartphone market grew by leaps and bounds, every statistics report released confirmed it and we saw Android blooming and taking a big part of the market as well as mind share. RIM was strugeling but still keeping solid sales numbers, and Apple making a statement that they are here to stay and that they are the company which you tuly needs to be meassured against if you are to be some body on the smartphone market.

Now IDC thinks that 2011 won’t see as big growth in the smartphone sector as we saw in 2010, but that the smartphone market is still believed to grow by a little over 49%.  A growth of close to 50% is not bad though and it’s estimated over 450 million units will ship during the year. As for what smartphone eco system that will be most successful in 2011 IDC claims it will be Android.

Senior research analyst Ramon Llamas of IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team says:

Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010.

What will the statistics look like in 2015?

The recent announcement of cooperation between Microsoft and Nokia will have a drastic impact on the smartphone landscape in 2015 believes IDC. With the first Nokia Windows Phone devices slated to launch in 2012, the landscape will start to change. Symbian will be phased out as a Nokia will transition all their smartphone devices over to the Windows Phone platform.

IDC expects the Windows Phone eco system to have gain such momentum by 2015 that they will slightly exceed 20% of the market share and thus become the top runner up chasing Android.

Android is also poised to grow by leaps and bounds until 2015, and by then claiming over 45% market share.

Analyst Llamas states:

The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android

Summary of 2011 and 2015 statistics

Operating System 2011 Market Share 2015 Market Share 2011-2015 CAGR
Android 39.5% 45.4% 23.8%
BlackBerry 14.9% 13.7% 17.1%
iOS 15.7% 15.3% 18.8%
Symbian 20.9% 0.2% -65.0%
Windows Phone/Windows Mobile 5.5% 20.9% 67.1%
Others 3.5% 4.6% 28.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 19.6%


Source: IDC Forecasts Worldwide Smartphone Market to Grow by Nearly 50% in 2011

IDC predicts smartphone statistics for 2015
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8 thoughts on “IDC predicts smartphone statistics for 2015

  • April 10, 2011 at 14:16

    Satan delights equally in statistics and in quoting scripture….
    -H.G. Wells, The Undying Fire

    20% market share for Windows Phone by 2015 seems steep, no matter how good Nokia might be. And Nokia isn’t exactly market lead on the all so important American market, where quite a lot of the ball game is going to be played.

    Statistics are statistics, but reading the future is still more guesswork than math. We’ll see what this amounts to when 2015 rolls over.

    • April 16, 2011 at 13:50

      Nice quote 🙂

      Yeah, I got a tad surprised over these figures as well. They seemed optimistic. But it’s not only IDC that got WP7 as second in the 2015 statistics, Gartner seem to have it as well.

  • April 24, 2011 at 18:02

    Windows Phone beating iPhone by 2015 seems far fetched, to say the least…
    Didn’t the most recent sales figures for Windows Phone suggest they are about as popular as Symbian smartphones?

    – Trav

    • May 6, 2011 at 23:06

      Eldar Murtazin claimed the other day that the total sales were about 675k units for Windows Phone so far I think.
      That’s a pretty good step away form selling all the 2+ million units Microsoft keeps saying has been delivered to stores.

      Not looking to bright at the moment, but it’s a good OS so I still got hopes for a bright future for Windows Phone!

  • April 27, 2011 at 03:08

    GOGO Windows Phone 7!! 😀

    • May 15, 2011 at 21:22

      We can relax, statistics clearly show they will be doing great in 2015 😉

  • May 24, 2011 at 06:09

    Windows Phone 7 is a great OS, I have no doubt it will be a huge success even sooner. The Mango release looks great and have loads of improvements, I think that will be a huge success and that WP will take off this year.

  • June 3, 2011 at 13:13

    Having a hard time seeing Windows Phone passing iOS.

    According to the latest figures Microsoft lost 25% market share since Windows Phone 7 was released.

    IDC and Gartner is just guessing. And guessing poorly to boot!


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